Michigan’s presidential primary on Tuesday will be the most visible test yet of voter dissatisfaction with President Joe Biden’s response to the Israel-Hamas conflict, as well as another test of voter interest in former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley’s waning GOP campaign.
Critics of the president, who believe he has been too lenient on Israel’s bombardment of Gaza in its fight against Hamas, are urging voters to cast “uncommitted” primary ballots to express their displeasure and pressure the White House to be less supportive of Israel’s tactics.
Biden’s campaign has met with community leaders in Michigan, which has a sizable Arab population, and the president has stated that he wants Israel to change course while still supporting them against Hamas militants following Hamas’ Oct. 7 terror attack. However, protests have continued as the death toll in Gaza rises.
Meanwhile, Haley is looking for a strong showing in the state as she attempts to chip away at former President Donald Trump’s massive primary lead, which was highlighted by his 20-point victory in her home state over the weekend.
Here are three things to watch in Michigan’s Presidential Primary on Tuesday night;
1. How big will the ‘uncommitted’ vote be?
Biden has attempted to walk a fine line in the Gaza conflict, criticizing Israel’s operations as “over the top” while declining to condition future aid to Israel on steps such as a permanent cease-fire or negotiations with the Palestinians.
That strategy has earned him critics on both sides, with Republicans arguing that he should be less critical of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and progressives and Arab Americans advocating for a more aggressive stance.
The president’s victory in the primary is not in doubt, given that he faces no major opponents and has won big in early nominating races. However, Michigan is a razor-thin swing state, and any drop could spell trouble in November.
According to the US Census Bureau, the state has the highest proportion of people of Middle Eastern or North African descent of any battleground. Wayne County, which includes Dearborn and Detroit, has the largest percentage of any county.
Trump won Michigan by less than 11,000 votes in 2016, while Biden won the state by approximately 154,000 votes in 2020. According to the 2020 census, more than 300,000 people in Michigan claim Middle Eastern and North African ancestry, far exceeding the state’s previous two margins of victory.
The Biden campaign has acknowledged the backlash. A spokesperson stated, in part, that he is “working hard to earn every vote in Michigan.”
2. High stakes for Whitmer
Biden isn’t the only Democrat who may be impacted by the results on Tuesday.
Gretchen Whitmer, the state’s governor, is frequently mentioned as a possible presidential candidate in 2028 after winning her seat in 2018 and then winning reelection in 2022, demonstrating her ability to easily win one of the most important states in the Electoral College.
Her victories were fueled by support from moderates, suburbanites, and Black voters, all of which Biden will need to shore up if he wants to win in November.
Whitmer is also one of eight national co-chairs for Biden’s reelection campaign, and her ability to help turn out voters for him in the state later this year could help her resume — and burnish her goodwill in the party — ahead of what will almost certainly be a crowded primary in 2028.
The governor has increased her appearances on the trail on Biden’s behalf, though she has also received criticism for statements that were considered too supportive of Israel or not supportive enough.
3. What’s going on with the Republican primary?
Republicans are holding their own primary on Tuesday night, and it’s not sounding right.
That’s because the party will also hold a nominating convention on March 2. Sixteen delegates will be awarded based on Tuesday’s results, with 39 awarded next month, when only elected party officials can vote.
The split occurred when the Democratic-controlled state government moved the primary date up to align with Biden’s preferred overall primary calendar. However, the Republican Party’s rules prohibit certain states from holding contests before March 1, so the Michigan GOP devised a hybrid system to avoid being penalised by the national organisation.
State Republicans are also dealing with increased uncertainty in the midst of a power struggle within the Michigan GOP.
Former Chair Kristina Karamo was removed from her position earlier this year, and the Republican National Committee named former Rep. Pete Hoekstra as the new state party leader. Karamo, on the other hand, insists she is still in charge and plans to sue.
Overall, Trump is the overwhelming favourite to win the primary. Haley has counted on potential crossover support, given that Democrats and independents can vote in the GOP primary, but the increased focus on Biden may draw their votes to that contest instead.
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