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NPP cannot win 2024 election as October poll results signal discontent

WISDOM K.E HAMMOND 1 year ago

The NPP has a slim chance of winning the 2024 election, according to the October 2023 polls.

A reliable and independent opinion research company in Ghana, Global InfoAnalytics, has released its October 2023 poll results, which indicate the direction of the country according to Ghanaians who responded from the 16 regions. The results of the poll suggest that the NPP has a slim chance of winning the 2024 election.

The latest poll results from October 2023 paint a concerning picture of Ghana’s current trajectory. A majority of voters in all regions now believe the country is headed in the wrong direction, with the exception of the North East Region, where there was a slight improvement. This shift in sentiment has significant implications for the upcoming 2024 elections.

The decline in positive sentiment is particularly pronounced in the Bono, Northern, and Western regions, where the proportion of voters believing Ghana is headed in the wrong direction increased by 46%, 17%, and 22%, respectively. These figures suggest a growing dissatisfaction with the current government’s performance and a yearning for change.

While the situation in the North East Region has shown some improvement, it remains to be seen whether this trend will continue. The overall negative perception in the rest of the country poses a significant challenge for the incumbent New Patriotic Party (NPP) if they hope to retain power in 2024.

These poll results serve as a wake-up call for the NPP and the government at large. They must address the concerns of the electorate and provide concrete solutions to the issues that are causing widespread dissatisfaction. Failure to do so could lead to a significant loss of support and a potential defeat in the upcoming elections.

The October 2023 polls provide valuable insights into the current state of public opinion in Ghana. They serve as leading indicators for the 2024 elections and underscore the importance of addressing the concerns of the electorate to secure victory. The NPP must carefully consider these results and formulate effective strategies to regain the confidence of the Ghanaian people. Only then can they hope to retain power and shape the country’s future.

Direction of the country according to the October 2023 poll results

The majority of voters in all the regions now believe Ghana is headed in the wrong direction.

The situation appears to be getting worse in all the regions except in the North East Region, where those who believed Ghana was headed in the wrong direction declined by 44%. Bono East, Upper West, and Western North also recorded a decline of circa 4%.

However, the situation in the Bono, Northern, and Western regions appears to be getting worse, as October 2023 saw a huge jump in the proportion of voters who believe Ghana is headed in the wrong direction, increasing by 46%, 17%, and 22%, respectively.

For the NPP to have any chance of winning the 2024 election, these polls must move in the right direction. They will provide us with the leading indicators of the 2024 elections.

For voters whose top issue is corruption, JDM also leads albeit with narrower margin. Among voters who said corruption is top issue, JDM leads with 49% among all voters, follow by DMB with 29%, AKK, 11%. Among floating voters, JDM leads with 54%, DMB, 19% and AKK, 14%.

For voters whose top issue is job, JDM also leads. Among voters who said the jobs is top issue, JDM leads with 46% among all voters, follow by DMB with 31%, AKK, 12%. Among floating voters, JDM leads with 54%, DMB, 15% and AKK, 15%.

For voters whose top issue is education, JDM also leads albeit with narrower margin. Among voters who said the education y is top issue, JDM leads with 43% among all voters, follow by DMB with 37%, AKK, 9%. Among floating voters, JDM leads with 56%, DMB, 17% and AKK, 12%

Data from the October 2023 poll suggests that on the economy, the top issue for voters in 2024, John Mahama has a strong lead over his rivals. Among voters who said the economy is top issue, JDM leads with 50% among all voters, follow by DMB with 30%, AKK, 10%. However, among floating voters, a block likely to decide who becomes president in 2025, JDM leads with 61%, DMB, 14% and AKK, 11%.