NPP supporters did not come out to vote not true – Mussa Dankwah

It has been alleged that Dr. Bawumia and the New Patriotic Party (NPP) lost the 2024 elections to John Mahama and the National Democratic Congress (NDC) because NPP supporters did not turn out to vote.

This claim, which lacks supporting data, has been countered by a fact-based release from Mussa Dankwah and his team at Infoanalytics. Before delving into the data shared by Mussa Dankwah, it is important to note that the assumption that only NPP voters abstained from voting on December 7, or that supporters of both parties did not switch camps during the election is flawed.

Mr. Mussa Dankwah, in his attempt to challenge these claims and demystify the myth that NPP supporters’ abstention caused the party’s loss, presented reliable data to back his argument.

Key Findings from the Data

According to Mr. Dankwah, his team conducted an exit poll and closely examined the data for evidence. While they did not find conclusive proof of widespread voter abstention unique to the NPP, they compared the 2020 and 2024 voter turnout and voting patterns to draw key insights.

They specifically analyzed:

1. Voters who supported Nana Addo in 2020 but switched to John Mahama in 2024.
2. Voters who supported John Mahama in 2020 but switched to Dr. Bawumia in 2024.

Regional Voting Trends

The analysis revealed the following:

• Ashanti Region: More John Mahama voters from 2020 switched to vote for Dr. Bawumia in 2024 compared to Nana Addo voters who switched to John Mahama. This resulted in a net gain of 8% for Dr. Bawumia.
• North East Region: Dr. Bawumia gained a net 16%, showing significant support in this area.

However, John Mahama made net gains in the remaining 14 regions. The summary of net gains for Mahama is as follows:

• Volta Region: 36%
• Savannah Region: 35%
• Western Region: 27%
• Greater Accra Region: 23%
• Central Region: 21%
• Upper East Region: 21%
• Bono East Region: 21%
• Oti Region: 10%
• Western North Region: 10%
• Ahafo Region: 6%
• Upper West Region: 6%
• Northern Region: 2%
• Eastern Region: 2%
• Bono Region: 1%

Voter Apathy

The argument that NPP voters stayed home is not entirely accurate. Voter apathy was not unique to the Ashanti and Eastern regions but occurred across the country.

The data indicates that a significant portion of those who participated in the 2020 election came out to vote against the NPP in 2024. On average:

• 22% of Nana Addo’s 2020 voters switched to John Mahama in 2024.
• 10% of John Mahama’s 2020 voters switched to Dr. Bawumia in 2024.

This shows that among voters who switched camps on election day, Mahama gained an additional 10% from the NPP camp, contributing significantly to his victory.

The claim that NPP’s loss was solely due to voter abstention is not supported by the data. Instead, the evidence suggests that while voter apathy existed, the main contributing factor to the NPP’s defeat was the higher rate of voter switching from Nana Addo to Mahama, compared to those who switched from Mahama to Dr. Bawumia.

READ: Ghana beyond aid, a myth or a reality?

From the above, the belief that NPP supporters did not come out to vote myth is not true. It is important to put on record that, John Dramani Mahama won the December 7th general elections in both the parliamentery and presidential polls. Mahama obtained at least 1.6 million more votes to beat Dr. Bawumia of the NPP.