John Mahama of the NDC will win the 2024 Election: EIU, Fitch predicts
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Polls conducted by EIU, Fitch all indicate John Mahama of the NDC will win the 2024 election. The EIU anticipates a shift in power from the incumbent New Patriotic Party (NPP) to the opposition National Democratic Congress (NDC).
John Mahama will win the 2024 Election: Details from EIU, Fitch polls
This expected polls, as outlined by the EIU, is attributed to a combination of factors including diminishing living standards, a scarcity of job opportunities, and inadequate public services.
Fitch Solutions, offering a similar prediction, asserts that the ruling party is unlikely to retain power. Their analysis indicates that John Mahama may secure victory in key swing regions, with a substantial lead of nearly 48%, compared to Vice President Bawumia’s projected 29%. Drawing on data from Global Info Analytics and their proprietary information, Fitch Solutions underscores the NDC’s advantage over the NPP in regions such as Volta-Oti, Northern, swing, and Akan.
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Addressing economic concerns, the report from BMI, a Fitch Solutions subsidiary, suggests that the NPP’s grip on power is tenuous post-2024. They project a potential recovery for the Ghanaian cedi, foreseeing its value strengthening below 12 cedis to the dollar by the end of 2024. This optimism is tied to expectations of a debt restructuring deal.
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Shifting focus to broader electoral trends, the EIU’s report extends beyond Ghana, highlighting that approximately nine African countries will hold elections in 2024. While incumbent regimes are anticipated to prevail in many cases, a notable risk exists regarding diminished parliamentary majorities.
Returning to the Ghanaian context, the EIU underscores the pivotal role of socio-economic factors in the potential power transfer. Beyond the political landscape, the report also delves into inflation projections for various African nations. It anticipates a general easing of inflation across the continent in 2024. However, the report notes that some major economies, including the Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Ghana, Nigeria, and Sudan, are likely to grapple with persistent double-digit inflation.
In summary, both the EIU and Fitch Solutions foresee a significant political shift in Ghana’s 2024 elections, with John Mahama potentially leading the NDC to victory. The analyses integrate economic and electoral considerations, providing a comprehensive perspective on the evolving dynamics of the upcoming elections and their potential implications for Ghana’s political and economic landscape.
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